Recession Confirmed

Market crash again today. Glad I got out of SSO and UYG! Apparently it was the biggest one-day point drop in the TSX since crash of '87. Like that even means anything any more. I think the media can stop giving stats like "the biggest x day point/percentage drop since xyz." Every day it's some new record; the volatility is just crazy. So just stop it with the stats unless it's something really major.

I was wanting to switch over to SKF (2x short financials, basically the opposite of UYG), but was waiting for it to go below $130. It didn't quite make it, and it shot up 30% today -- gah! Missed out again. There's so much opportunity to play these market swings, it's just impossible to time the peaks and valleys.

Oh, and the big news today was that yes, the U.S. is in a recession and it officially started in December of 2007. Well, no duh. I think it's so stupid that it took a whole year to "confirm" the recession. But I guess everyone's definition of the term recession is different anyway. According to the most commonly used rule of thumb, you have to have 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to be in a recession, which has not happened yet. Obviously that is not a very reliable indicator. I hated how the question in the news throughout 2008 was always "Do you think we're in a recession?" Why wasn't every single economist jumping up and down saying, "Yep, it sure looks like it!" No, no-one would ever admit it. You can never be negative... wouldn't want to spook investors and have the markets drop or something.

Of course Mr. Eric Sprott was right as usual, saying back in January and February of 2008 that it looked like the recession had finally begun. It's always interesting to go back to Sprott's Markets at a Glance articles from late 2007 and early 2008 to see how accurately they predicted the whole mess that is now happening.

I'm obviously more bearish on the markets than bullish, but I keep feeling I'm missing out on the short opportunities and then I end up going long when I think there might be a temporary bottom. And I could see myself trying to grab a short-term bounce again soon, buying back into UYG if it hits the $3.xx range over the next week. We'll see...